2025 Season Two 

 

Last Year’s Performance 
Despite improving my overall win percentage from 68.8% to 71.7% and accruing 127 more points this season than last season’s computer model, I ended up in 6th place (out of 71) by 3 points, just outside of the money in my league this year. In addition, I didn't win any of my pools’ 18 weekly top 2 slots either, for a relatively disappointing season with $0 winnings despite being in the season’s top 11 the last 10 weeks down the stretch.

After 271 Games…

The heartbreaking thing for me at the end of the season was my week 18 1-point pick of Seattle over the Rams. I ended up winning the point but had the Rams won the game (which was close but didn’t matter by then), I would have only lost 1 point but 2 of the guys ahead of me had picked them with 6 & 13 points, which would have moved me into a tie for 4th place (3.5X the league fee)!

 

Underdog Moneyline Pick Disappointment

My analysis heading into 2024 (based on 2023's results) led me to believe that my model was fairly good at predicting underdogs and that it would make sense to bet from a moneyline perspective. Unfortunately, after putting my money where my mouth was for the season, I ended up losing 22% of what I bet overall. It goes without saying that I'm not nearly as confident that the model is great at picking underdogs to bet on the moneyline.

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Additional Computer Models Created

Since my computer model is based on several variables, I spent last season tracking 4 other computer model versions that I created based on different combinations of these variables. From an overall season perspective, they all performed in a relatively tight range between 1658 (11th place) to 1692 (3rd place), with 2 of the 5 models also winning 1 week each in the pool. When I compared my 5 models’ performance (in yellow below) against some of the other ‘experts’ on the internet, I found most of the other models don’t seem to compete for the season but just try to win a few weeks, resulting in terrible overall totals.

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Buzzworthy Expanded Offerings

This season, I am pleased to offer 5 different Confidence Pool Models to choose from, adding 4 new models along with original Classic Model: Favorites, Low Risk, Medium Risk, High Risk. You can choose which model you would like to use depending on your goals for your pool, which might change as the season progresses. The nice thing is you can experiment with your risk level while knowing that all of these models aren't so aggressive that you'll be out of season contention before the 1st bye week, like others.​

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2024 Inaugural Season

 

About Me: Analytics Geek Since Stratomatic Football

I'm not one of those NFL talking head ‘experts’, but I've been participating in the same confidence pool for the last 15+ years. As an Engineer and analytical ‘numbers’ person, over the years I developed and have continuously optimized a computer model based on multiple variables that when combined, predicts the picks and the confidence points for each game each week.
 

Past Results: Coulda Been a Contender

Over those 15+ years, I have won my fair share of weekly, and end of season rewards out of a ~70 person pool. But If I'm being brutally honest, I haven’t won more than I have spent on league fees over that duration for one simple reason, I let my personal opinion override a few of my computer model’s picks and points each week!
 

I Decided To Investigate: What If I Trusted My Model?
That said, in 2023 I still overrode my computer model with my personal opinions, but I finally started tracking my performance (computer picks with my stupid opinions) vs. just what my computer model predicted with no emotion. Guess what I found?
 

2023 Confidence Pool Results: 11.25X My League Fee! 
Despite having a pretty good year with my overrides picks (I was on track to finish 9th overall at 1515), I finished in 20th overall at 1486. As I'm sure you've all done, since I was too far behind to place in the overall standings (top 5),I spent the last 4 weeks picking a few aggressive upset picks to try to pickup some weekly rewards. That strategy paid off by finishing 2nd in week 17 (half the league fee in rewards).

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My untouched computer model picks, however, would have finished 2nd overall at 1551, and would have also finished 1st in week 9. Combined, my rewards would have totaled 11.25 TIMES my league fee!

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Further Analysis: 99.95% Percentile in 2023!

Not only did my computer model perform well in my Confidence Pool, but as I studied it in more detail, I found out that my model's Overall win percentage was 68.8%. The best of the 287 'experts' on Pickwatch in 2023 finished at 68.0% and only 4 'fans' out of 7,519 on Pickwatch picked better than my model. As for Favorites, my model was at 69.8% while the NFL Average is 66.2%. But my model's best performance was reserved for the Underdogs coming in at 56.3%, while the NFL Average is 33.8%. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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Unexpected Benefit: Underdog Moneyline Picks

This observation leads me to a secondary benefit that can be derived from my model: Applying the model's Underdog picks to the Moneyline since I picked anywhere from 8-14% better that the breakeven point for underdogs (depending on the odds).  I separately plan to track that performance over 2024, and personally apply it on every Underdog my model picks this season to see how much additional value is possible.​