Buzzworthy NFL Confidence Pool Picks
TIRED OF YOUR FRIENDS IN YOUR CONFIDENCE POOL
WINDING UP NEAR THE TOP YEAR AFTER YEAR? BUT YOU
DON'T WANT TO PAY A LARGE % OF YOUR LEAGUE FEE
FOR SOME 'EXPERTS' PICKS?
NOW IS YOUR CHANCE TO GET GREAT PICKS EACH WEEK
FOR YOUR CONFIDENCE POOL AT A FRACTION
OF WHAT THE 'EXPERTS' ARE ASKING
About Me: Analytics Geek Since Stratomatic Football
I'm not one of those NFL talking head ‘experts’, but I've been participating in the same confidence pool for the last 15+ years. As an Engineer and analytical ‘numbers’ person, over the years I developed and have continuously optimized a computer model based on multiple variables that when combined, predicts the picks and the confidence points for each game each week.
Past Results: Coulda Been a Contender
Over those 15+ years, I have won my fair share of weekly, and end of season rewards out of a ~70 person pool. But If I'm being brutally honest, I haven’t won more than I have spent on league fees over that duration for one simple reason, I let my personal opinion override a few of my computer model’s picks and points each week!
I Decided To Investigate: What If I Trusted My Model?
That said, in 2023 I still overrode my computer model with my personal opinions, but I finally started tracking my performance (computer picks with my stupid opinions) vs. just what my computer model predicted with no emotion. Guess what I found?
2023 Confidence Pool Results: 11.25X My League Fee!
Despite having a pretty good year with my overrides picks (I was on track to finish 9th overall at 1515), I finished in 20th overall at 1486. As I'm sure you've all done, since I was too far behind to place in the overall standings (top 5),I spent the last 4 weeks picking a few aggressive upset picks to try to pickup some weekly rewards. That strategy paid off by finishing 2nd in week 17 (half the league fee in rewards).
My untouched computer model picks, however, would have finished 2nd overall at 1551, and would have also finished 1st in week 9. Combined, my rewards would have totaled 11.25 TIMES my league fee!
Further Analysis: 99.95% Percentile in 2023!
Not only did my computer model perform well in my Confidence Pool, but as I studied it in more detail, I found out that my model's Overall win percentage was 68.8%. The best of the 287 'experts' on Pickwatch in 2023 finished at 68.0% and only 4 'fans' out of 7,519 on Pickwatch picked better than my model. As for Favorites, my model was at 69.8% while the NFL Average is 66.2%. But my model's best performance was reserved for the Underdogs coming in at 56.3%, while the NFL Average is 33.8%.
Unexpected Benefit: Underdog Moneyline Picks
This observation leads me to a secondary benefit that can be derived from my model: Applying the model's Underdog picks to the Moneyline since I picked anywhere from 8-14% better that the breakeven point for underdogs (depending on the odds). I separately plan to track that performance over 2024, and personally apply it on every Underdog my model picks this season to see how much additional value is possible.